Showing posts with label G20. Show all posts
Showing posts with label G20. Show all posts

Thursday, 1 December 2011

EU: Ecofin followed up G20 Cannes summit

When I waded through the documents published by the G20 summit in Cannes 3 to 4 November 2011, I wondered if the Ecofin Council of the EU would find anything intelligent to say, something to highlight for posterity.

Now we have the Ecofin conclusions:

3129th Council meeting Economic and Financial Affairs; Brussels, 30 November 2011 (provisional version, 17683/11; 26 pages)

We are able to see that Ecofin bravely resisted any temptation to offer unmerited attention to any detail at the expense of the whole (page 7):

FOLLOW-UP TO THE G-20 SUMMIT

The Council took stock of the outcome of the G-20 summit held in Cannes on 3 and 4 November, on the basis of a debriefing by the Commission and by the French delegation (in its capacity as G-20 presidency).

The G-20 summit covered:
• coordination of economic policies;
• the G-20 framework for growth;
• reform of financial regulation;
• reform of the international monetary system;
• commodity price volatility;
• other issues, such as food security, global governance, development cooperation, trade, corruption, employment and energy
We leave the sherpas to prepare the next G20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, in June 2012, and we look forward to the next Ecofin follow-up.



Ralf Grahn

Wednesday, 30 November 2011

EU: Ecofin G20 Cannes summit follow-up

It happened less than four weeks ago, but the daily developments during the global financial crisis and the crisis of the euro make it feel like an eternity: the G20 Cannes summit.

According to the agenda of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council 30 November 2011 and the background note, the Ecofin Council is going to follow up the G20 summit in Cannes on 3 and 4 November, on the basis of a debriefing by the Commission and by the French delegation (in its capacity as G20 presidency).

Here are the visible G20 summit outputs, which left few international and multilateral efforts unmentioned. The presenters are hopefully able to extract the gold nuggets for the EU finance ministers, on the last day of the French G20 presidency:

Communiqué G20 Leaders Summit -- Cannes -- 3-4 November 2011 (33 numbered paragraphs)

The Cannes action plan for growth and jobs and Annex with G20 members' individual commitments

Cannes summit final declaration (95 numbered paragraphs)

Appendices to these summit documents (nine appendices, twelve other reports)

Other outcomes of the Cannes summit of G20 (links to fact sheets on seventeen themes)



Ralf Grahn

Monday, 7 November 2011

Eurozone: Credible Italy?

We have looked at the background and gaps and filled the Ecofin file with recent EU and eurozone statements. We are anxiously eyeing Greece, but we also know that we are all aboard the Greek rollercoaster on the slopes of the Apennines.

The EU finance ministers meet in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) Tuesday 8 November 2011, after the meeting of the Euro Group this evening, to take stock of developments and to chart a route to safety.

If Greece is a big problem, Italy is both big and a problem of proportions for the stability of the euro area as a whole.


Italy

The news out of Italy is far from reassuring.

According to Reuters, prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has one day left to win over waverers and to see off party rebels, before a crunch vote on Tuesday. On Friday the yield of Italian bonds reached more than 6.4 per cent, there is uncertainty of Italy's commitment to EU and IMF monitoring and the bond-buying programme of the European Central bank is conditional on the concrete delivery of structural reform.

Calls for Berlusconi's resignation and the possibility of early elections add to the muddled picture, while the G20 summit left the eurozone with warm words, but no money to top up the EFSF, as reported by CNN (here and here).

Bloomberg sees that the Italian yield surge has already set Berlusconi on the path to bailout. Italy has to refinance 37 billion euros of bills and bonds by year-end and another 307 billion euros in 2012, although the big and diversified real economy of Italy offers some silver lining.



Ralf Grahn

Friday, 4 November 2011

More Greek Dra(ch)ma

Forget about Alice in Wonderland when prime minister George Papandreou, starring the Greek Dra(ch)ma of domestic politics, overshadows the sideshow of the G20 leaders in Cannes. Markets around the world have barely stopped shaking.

The referendum surprise rabbit was stuffed back into the hat as quickly as it had been conjured up, but incredibly the magician Papandreou is still in office, intent on winning a vote of confidence tonight.

You can relive the surreal day of 3 November 2011 through the live blog of Athens News, the FT Eurozone crisis live blog, the CNBC summary of the day, the Reuters summary, the Spiegel Online International report, the Financial Times Deutschland summary (in German), just to name a few.

This morning again, the euro drama is spread on millions of breakfast tables (in paper or virtual form) and played out on millions of screens.

Few have ignited as much pan-European debate as George Papandreou. The euroblogger Ronny Patz - @ronpatz on Twitter – tweeted it like this:

After these weeks, nobody should complain anymore that there is no European Public Sphere. Everyone talks #eurozone & #greece.

What EU citizens lack are the democratic and robust institutions at European (eurozone) level, where the issues are. Only democracy and sufficient powers can end the tortuous and torturous road of failed attempts and half-measures.

In the meantime, tune in to the next episode.



Ralf Grahn

Thursday, 3 November 2011

EU or eurozone exit and chaotic default for Greece?

Few have ignited as much pan-European debate as George Papandreou, who remains prime minister of Greece at least until Friday evening. Not only mainstream media are full of reports, but multilingual Bloggingportal.eu is teeming with contributions from eurobloggers. Here are a few euroblog posts.

Lost in EUrope wanted to see the Greek referendum announcment as an opportunity to establish rules for orderly secession from the eurozone and for a European Monetary Fund (in German).

Eurosearch noted that after years of talking about how to make the EU more democratic and countless pages written to explain the democratic deficit, it boils down to the crucial possibility to choose between governments (‘throwing the bastards out’) and policies which is still, at the EU level, not present.

Karpfenteich opposes buying of state bonds by the European Central Bank (in German).

Popular protests against austerity measures were reported on Global Voices.

What happens next? Kevin Featherstone outlined scenarios from early elections to the alternative outcomes of a referendum.

Gunnar Hökmark MEP described Greece as increasingly ungovernable and beyond help (in Swedish). Without outside help there is little stagnant and uncompetitive Greece can finance on its own.

Le Taurillon interviewed the economist Le Héron, who described Greece as a weak and corrupt state, but its uncompetitive economy would gain little from secession. The bailout funds are still not sufficient in case of contagion. At the European level better economic coordination, a substantial budget and a wider ECB mandate are needed (in French).

Europaportalen.se reported Papandreou's surprise announcement as a risk to the G20 summit plans and the eurozone rescue effort. EU leaders in Cannes would give the Greek PM a hot reception (in Swedish).

The blog of the ECFR in Madrid reported that China would not rescue the eurozone through the EFSF or the ESM in the current turmoil, anyway not without being recognised as a free market economy in the WTO. Participation by the BRICS through new funds for the IMF is possible, but they want more voice (in Spanish).

According to Renaud Dehousse on Telos the Greek referendum announcement showed shocking irresponsibility. The structural weaknesses of leaders with national mandates and unanimous decision making must be replaced by majority voting and institutions equipped to act in the general interest (in French).

Clem Chambers wondered if a Greek tradegy is in store, after all. News that a Greek referendum could see that country choose to default on debt, despite the best efforts of Euro leaders to save it, sent markets into fresh free fall come the morning of 1 November.

The European Citizen saw Papandreou's decision as a massive political gamble. A yes would mean buying into the process so far and imply support for however it evolves. A no would mean the end to the loans, complete default (along with the instant austerity that the inability to fund the deficit implies) and probable exit of the Eurozone.

Honor Mahony brought the suffering of the Greek people to the fore, as an explanation for giving them a say.

Maxime Larive saw Papandreou's referendum announcement as a very rational move from a politician trying to save his career by avoiding a personal failure and a probable demonization by Greek fellows. Referring to a post by Ronny Patz, Larive concluded that the European citizens are the missing element for a successful Union. Ultimately, the EU and the euro will survive and be successful if Europeans decide its future and shape.

Marco Zatterin reported that without a firm undertaking, it is impossible for the IMF to pay the sixth tranche of the ongoing Greek rescue, amounting to €8bn. In mid December the state coffers of Greece will be empty (in Italian).

Álvaro Millán wrote that the Greeks have every right to decide about their future, but their decision affects all Europeans, turning Papandreou's proposal into a nightmare for us all (in Spanish).

Yanis Varoufakis reckoned that the referendum is a shoddy, strategically ill-fated, morally corrupt and politically damaging ploy. Papandreou has done enough harm to the Greek nation and Europe. He should resign.

Kati Suominen writes that the G20 summit in Cannes is going to be hijacked by Europe's troubles, but she paints a broader canvas of the international challenges.

The Financial Times live blog on the eurozone crisis ended at midnight local time after reporting from Cannes, Rome and Athens that the €8bn tranche of IMF and eurozone aid is suspended until the world knows if Greece wants to abide by the summit deal. The FT promised to continue coverage in the morning.

The eurozone shows Greece the door to exit, reports Jean Quatremer, who states that the leaders refuse to be taken hostage by Greek internal politics. Papandreou can freely consult his people, but it is for him to draw the conclusions. The referendum could now take place 4 December 2011, but Quatremer doubts if Papandreou will survive the vote of confidence on Friday.

***

If prime minister George Papandreou wanted to blackmail the eurozone leaders and international lenders, he has failed. There is no way they can extract more sacrifices from European taxpayers or others to keep him in power.

The Greek parliament holds the keys to the fate of the Pasok government and the possible referendum.

Referendum or elections, the Greek people face stark choices.

One is chaotic default and exit from the European Union or a new procedure to leave the eurozone separately.

The second is prolonged misery according to the agreed bailout regimes and later additions.

Either way, Greece still needs to become a functioning state and competitive economy.

Left on the table are the other euro area dominos needing to be sorted out, but not much time...

Without robust and democratic institutions at European or eurozone level there is, however, no end in sight to the interminable row of failed attempts and partial fixes.



Ralf Grahn