Reflection paper on globalisation: Opportunity or threat?

The Commission’s White paper on the future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025 COM(2017) 2025 invited the citizens of the European Union to discuss our common future ahead of the elections to the European Parliament in 2019.

In the White paper, published 1 March 2017, the European Commission promised to contribute to the discussion during the coming months with a series of reflection papers on the following topics:

• developing the social dimension of Europe;

• deepening the Economic and Monetary Union, on the basis of the Five Presidents' Report of June 2015;

• harnessing globalisation;

• the future of Europe’s defence;

• the future of EU finances.

As promised, the European Commission published a paper discussing the economic and societal challenges of rapid integration:

Reflection paper on harnessing globalisation; Brussels, 10.5.2017 COM(2017) 240 final (25 pages)   

For those who prefer the less readable pastel coloured “printed” versions, with annexes, the European Commission’s web page White paper on the future of Europe and the way forward serves as a convenient channel to the White paper and the five reflection papers, including the one on harnessing globalisation in the official EU languages.

Opportunity of threat?

One of the difficulties for building coherent policies and action is that people in the EU are divided: 55 per cent see globalisation as an opportunity, while 45 per cent consider globalisation as a threat overall (page 10).  

Even worse, fear of globalisation is the main cause for voters to abandon mainstream political parties and to turn to populist parties, especially on the Right, but also on the Left, according to the 2016 study from the Bertelsmann Stiftung Globalisierungsangst oder Wertekonflikt? The lower the level of education, the less the income and the higher the age of people, the more likely they are to perceive globalisation as a threat.

Majorities in Austria and France experienced globalisation as a threat, while the proportion of people fearing globalisation was particularly low in Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Public opinion in the Netherlands, Germany and Hungary formed a middle group between the extremes.  

However, in May 2017, along with stronger economies in the EU and the euro area, the Bruegel blog found that Europeans rediscover enthusiasm for globalisation, even in France, as Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Zsolt Darvas wrote.

Tri-polar world?

A fresh post on the Bruegel blog, European worries about isolationist trends, reasons that despite populist shocks in the UK and US, withdrawing from the world is no solution, but that Europe needs to reassess the future of globalisation.

Internal EU reform is long overdue, and Europe’s allies are withdrawing, while European integration and globalisation both build on the idea ‘work together, as a way of doing better’. Maria Demertzis discusses both economic inequality in Europe (the UK and US) and the rise of a China promoting different values than the EU.

Can the EU overcome populist and protectionist pressures? Is the European Union going to be able to conclude constructive deals with China?

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Let us return with a blog entry on how the European Commission wants to handle the internal and external pressures of globalisation and at a few expert comments about the reflection paper.

Ralf Grahn

Future of Europe: introducing deepening EMU

In the blog entry Future of Europe to meet European Council about the winds of change from the European Parliament, the European Commission and president Emmanuel Macron, we saw the:

White Paper on the Future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final

The White Paper promised to deliver further food for thought and debate through five thematic papers, among which (page 18):

The European Commission will contribute to that discussion in the months ahead with a series of reflection papers on the following topics:

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• deepening the Economic and Monetary Union, on the basis of the Five Presidents' Report of June 2015;

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Five President’s Report

Published in June 2015, the 23-page Five President’s Report, officially Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union, was authored by the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker “in close cooperation with” the president of the European Council and the euro summit Donald Tusk, the president of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi and the president of the European Parliament Martin Schulz.  

EMU Reflection paper

Two years later came the update in the form of:

Reflection paper on the deepening of the economic and monetary union; Brussels, 31.5.2017 COM(2017) 291 final (34 pages)

Alternatively, access the White Paper and the reflection papers through the Commission web page White paper on the future of Europe and the way forward.

Introductory notes  

In Finnish I looked at the deepening of the economic and monetary union (EMU) and the Five Presidents’ Report in the blog post Euroopan tulevaisuus: talous- ja rahaliiton syventäminen and at the EMU reflection paper in the entry Pohdinta-asiakirja talous- ja rahaliiton syventämiseksi.

The Swedish blog post Norden i EU-utkanten? described how scattered the Nordic countries are with regard to the defence alliance NATO and the European Union. Iceland and Norway remain outside the EU, and even the EU members Denmark and Sweden continue on the periphery, showing no signs of adopting the euro, while  leaving Finland the sole Nordic participant in the euro area, the core group of 19 countries with a total population of 341 million.

In Vitboken om EU:s framtid i Norden I tried to find signs of activity regarding the future of Europe, by the governments or parliaments of the Nordic EU members Denmark, Finland and Sweden, concerning the White Paper from the European Commission. (The article Diskussionsunderlaget om EU:s sociala dimension i Norden moved from the general level to explore the reception of the reflection paper on the social dimension by these three countries. There are also a number of earlier blog posts in Finnish, Swedish or  English about the social market economy, the European social pillar and the EU social dimension. Most of them can be found through the entry Future of Europe: social dimension.)  

(The English entries A symbolic opportunity for the European Council and Future of Europe to meet European Council visited the summit level and general EU reform issues in an attempt to lay the groundwork for more specific questions, such as the individual reflection papers, with the creation of a credible EMU next in turn.)   

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Twitter reflects at least parts of the multilingual pan-European public debate about the future of the European Union under the hashtag #FutureOfEurope, while the Commission web page for the priority A deeper and fairer economic and monetary union offers a more specific tag #deepeningEMU, covering the policy areas: economic union, financial union, fiscal union, political union (and the European Pillar of Social Rights).

Ralf Grahn

State of the Union 2017 brochure

In addition to the letter of intent and roadmap(s), the European Commission’s SOTEU web page offers us the State of the Union 2017 brochure, a booklet of 108 pages available only in English at this moment.

Since the handy brochure is at least partly a compilation of documents published separately, some of the content is already available in other EU languages.

SOTEU speech

At least the first real item, president Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union 2017 (SOTEU) address, is available in all the 24 official languages of the European Union: IP/17/3165.  

The speech reminds us of Juncker’s dual approach, in his words (page 7):

First, we should stay the course set out last year. We have still 16 months in which real progress can be made by Parliament, Council and Commission. We must use this time to finish what we started in Bratislava and deliver on our positive agenda.

Secondly, we should chart the direction for the future. As Mark Twain wrote, years from now we will be more disappointed by the things we did not do, than by the ones we did. Now is the time to build a more united, stronger and more democratic Europe for 2025.

Juncker seemed to recall the “business as usual” first scenario, officially called “carrying on”, in the White paper on the future of Europe COM(2017) 2025 final, when he showed that just staying the course means defending more of the strategic interests of EU citizens at the level of the European Union (page 8):

We set out to complete an Energy Union, a Security Union, a Capital Markets Union, a Banking Union and a Digital Single Market. Together, we have already come a long way.

Setting the sails and charting a course for the future, Juncker reminded his listeners about the five scenarios of the White paper, before outlining his own ‘scenario six’ (page 12).  

The values (freedom, equality and the rule of law) are the compass for the European Union (pages 12-13) and the foundation for a more united, stronger and more democratic union, each of which Juncker laid out on the following pages, explaining why they are in the interest of the citizens of the union.

Letter of intent

The  blog post Letter of intent and Roadmap already outlined the second item in the SOTEU 2017 brochure (from page 23), including the draft Commission Work Programme until the end of 2018: #CWP2018.

Listed under the Commission’s ten priorities, there are CWP 2018 proposals 1) to launch or to complete by the end of 2018, and 2) there are initiatives to be launched with a 2025 perspective.

The Commission is going to consult with the European Parliament and the Council (Coreper I and II) before the draft is replaced by the final Commission Work Programme 2018.  

Rest of SOTEU brochure

The rest of the State of the Union 2017 brochure deals with the following themes:

Progress on the European Commission’s 10 Priorities

Better Regulation

Delivering on What the EU Promised: Enforcing More Effectively Our Joint Decisions

The State of Public Opinion in the EU

Progress in the Economic Situation

Policy Implementation Report

The European Solidarity Corps: One Year on

Visits to national Parliaments

Citizens’ Dialogues

Letter on the Roadmap for a More United, Stronger and a More Democratic Union

Stay tuned for new presentations.

Ralf Grahn

European Parliament: Future of Europe and SOTEU

Since there is just a little time, before the plenary debate about the future of Europe #FutureOfEurope and the state of the European Union #SOTEU address begins in the European Parliament, I am going to direct your attention to earlier blog articles on Eurooppaoikeus (FI), Grahnblawg (SV) and Grahnlaw (EN). In the Grahnblawg post Hopkok om EU:s framtid you can find direct or indirect references to 31 blog articles in Finnish, Swedish or English about the publications and the discussion, and in Europaparlamentet om tillståndet i EU 2017 we already approached the European Parliament as the host of the debate.

SOTEU press release   

The European Parliament has published an informative press release with useful links about the future and the state of the union debate, especially the references under Shaping Europe’s future.

Still, it is astonishing that the press release did not mention the European Commission’s so called white paper (so called, because it contained no concrete proposals):

White Paper on the Future of Europe - Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2015; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final

Annexed to the press release is a four-page presentation of Eurobarometer results on selected topics, with EU citizens generally ahead of the heads of state or government.

EPRS briefings

In June the European Parliamentary Research Service EPRS published a short note Mapping the ‘Future of the EU’ debate, which summarised four resolutions from the European Parliament about the future of EU27. The second page described the invitation by the Juncker Commission to a debate about the future of the European Union, notably the general white paper and the five subsequent thematic reflection papers, but also recorded the process of the EU27 leaders from the Brexit vote to the Rome declaration.

A few days ago, the post The 2017 State Of The Union Debate In The European Parliament on the European Parliamentary Research Service Blog reminded readers about the role of the SOTEU debate for the adoption of the annual Commission Work Programme (CWP). The article highlighted a fresh blog post Next Steps In The Debate On The Future Of Europe, which recalled the white paper and the five reflection papers, and it linked to an updated briefing note about the future: The 2017 State of the Union Debate in the European Parliament (September 2017; 6 pages).

The briefing relates the discussion based on the white paper and reflection papers, but also contains reminders of the birth of the State of the European Union  debate, SOTEU’s role in the annual legislative programming, its constitutional significance and an outlook on the role of the president of the European Commission.

Ralf Grahn

European Parliament meets EU27 on EU future

With the EU27 national leaders busy reflecting on the future of the European Union ahead of the 25 March 2017 Rome declaration, where are the possible obstacles to sufficient reforms in the light of the challenges?  

European Parliament debate

On 1 March 2017, the same day the Juncker Commission launched the White Paper on the future of Europe, the European Parliament plenary debated the challenges and scenarios, here related in Finnish.

The EPP Group greeted the discussion paper, and the S&D, ALDE and Green groups called for a more robust and democratic EU, but here I am going to highlight just one exchange, which illustrates the obstacles to real reform.

Gianni Pittella, the leader of the Socialists and Democrats, was disappointed that the Commission’s White Paper did not clearly indicate the fifth option of doing more together, now that the EU faces unprecedented external and internal challenges and European families are struggling to make ends meet.

Pittella continued:

There is so much left to do. Our House needs a strong Social Pillar to protect our citizens. And it needs European fiscal capacity. We must complete the European monetary union and build a sustainable Europe capable of fighting climate change and creating jobs and growth. We must combat tax fraud, and the project of a common European army is now more important than ever. We have to defend our inclusiveness without leaving aside the eastern countries. We can only achieve this if we stay united as Europeans. President Juncker, I call on you and on your Commission to take on your responsibility. You are the guardians of the Treaties, the guardians of the common European good and our common European future at this time. We ask you to show leadership and urge the Council to take on their historic duty.

In a couple of weeks, we will celebrate the anniversary of the Rome Treaties. Only some years after a terrible world war in Europe, political leaders had the courage to commit to European unity and explained to their citizens why we Europeans are stronger together. After decades in which Europe has brought us peace and prosperity, is it really too much to ask of this generation of leaders to commit to Europe and make it stronger for the future? Let us not give up. Let us show political leadership in the fight together for a Europe that is better and stronger, so that our children and their children will have a good future.

Summing up the debate, president Jean-Claude Juncker defended the choice of a discussion paper. With regard to the Socialist Group, he asked them:

…two weeks hence, while identifying those who are for the option 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, to bring him the group opinion on the issue. Do not forget to speak with the socialist prime ministers, above all do not forget to do this. You are not prime ministers, which is unfortunate for your countries, but they are and they think the opposite of what you are saying.  

White Paper

The Commission’s invitation to discuss consists of one main document and two short annexes, the first containing a timetable for the debate and the second one a graphic compilation of all five scenarios (none of them designed to be quite readable):

White Paper on the future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final (18 pages)

ANNEX to the White Paper on the future of Europe; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final ANNEX 1

ANNEX to the White Paper on the future of Europe; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final ANNEX 2

Next debate

Two weeks later, as Juncker said, tomorrow on Wednesday morning 15 March 2017, the European Parliament has a new opportunity to discuss the actions of the European Council and the upcoming Rome declaration with the re-appointed EUCO president Donald Tusk, the Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, Malta’s deputy prime minister Louis Grech and Italy’s prime minister Paolo Gentiloni.

Even if completely ignored by the EU27 heads of state or government, the European Parliament comes prepared, most recently through the plenary debate on the White Paper, as well as three recent initiatives showing a lot more spunk, and aiming at a more effective and democratic European Union:

European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2017 on improving the functioning of the European Union building on the potential of the Lisbon Treaty P8_TA-PROV(2017)0049 (Bresso and Brok report)

European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2017 on possible evolutions of and adjustments to the current institutional set-up of the European Union P8_TA-PROV(2017)0048 (Verhofstadt report)

European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2017 on budgetary capacity for the euro area P8_TA-PROV(2017)0050 (Böge and Berès report)

Tune in for any signs to end the era of stagnation from the EU27.

Ralf Grahn

Grey White Paper on the future of Europe

In the Bratislava Roadmap the heads of state or government declared their determination to make a success of the EU at 27. The leaders promised to use the 25 March 2017 celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties to round off the process and to set out orientations for their common future together.

Having seen the auspices, the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker made a sober assessment. Instead of reform proposals, the Commission published a discussion document called a White Paper on the future of Europe, as well as an invitation to a broad and long public discussion about our future. The main points are presented in the press release IP/17/385, readable until the annex.

Grey White Paper COM(2017) 2025

The official documentation comes in three papers difficult to read, one main document and two short annexes, the first containing a timetable for the debate and the second one a graphic compilation of all five scenarios:

White Paper on the future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final (18 pages)

ANNEX to the White Paper on the future of Europe; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final ANNEX 1

ANNEX to the White Paper on the future of Europe; Brussels, 1.3.2017 COM(2017) 2025 final ANNEX 2

Did the graphic designers defeat the authors, or was the grey on grey presentation a collective symbolic choice for the thoughts about the EU:s future and the possible paths?

Maybe the EU’s ten golden rules in accessible Web design have missed the basic requirement of readable text.

Reflections  

Right from the start, the White Paper raises the bar for the clarity of vision among the leaders and citizens of today, by recalling the Ventotene Manifesto for a free and united Europe, by Altiero Spinelli and Ernesto Rossi (link to all language versions).

The introductory reflections are worth reading, even if you used to be irritated by the  self-congratulatory style of the Commission. The introduction does offer a view of  common benefits, but without much hype, while also reminding us of setbacks, challenges, limitations and weaknesses (pages 2-5).  

Five scenarios

At first sight, there appears to be a wild clash among five different scenarios, or paths to the future some five or ten years hence. In reality, the Commission has narrowed down the alternatives. The scenarios contain various elements discussed daily, the pathways are not mutually exclusive and they run closer to each other one would think at the start.

On the one hand, the Commission refuses to speculate on anything but the EU27 format. Breakdown or (major) desertions are excluded: The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union.

On the other hand, even the seemingly most ambitious scenario 5 “Doing much more together” discusses a union still owned and ruled by the national leaders and their governments, not a democratic union of citizens, a European republic.

I hope you take the time to read, think and discuss these potential roads or paths to the future in the medium term.

Scenario 1: Carrying on (from page 7)

Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market (from page 9)

Scenario 3: Those who want more do more (from page 11)

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently (from page 13)

Scenario 5: Doing much more together (from page 15)

Invitation to discuss

Instead of rounding off a closed conversation among 27 national leaders, the EU Commission opens up by inviting all Europeans to discuss our common future ahead of the next elections to the European Parliament (page 17):

This White Paper should open an honest and wide-ranging debate with citizens on how Europe should evolve in the years to come. Every voice should be heard. The European Commission, together with the European Parliament and interested Member States, will host a series of “Future of Europe Debates” across Europe’s national Parliaments, cities and regions. The ideas and determination of the hundreds of millions of Europeans will be the catalyst of our progress.

The White Paper is the European Commission’s contribution to the Rome Summit. Like all anniversaries, Rome will be a natural time to reflect on the success of the last 60 years. However, it should also be viewed as the beginning of a process for the EU27 to decide together on the future of their Union.

The European Commission will contribute to that discussion in the months ahead with a series of reflection papers on the following topics:

• developing the social dimension of Europe;

• deepening the Economic and Monetary Union, on the basis of the Five Presidents' Report of June 2015;

• harnessing globalisation;

• the future of Europe’s defence;

• the future of EU finances.

Like this White Paper, these reflection papers will offer different ideas, proposals, options or scenarios for Europe in 2025 to open a debate without presenting definitive decisions at this stage.

President Juncker’s 2017 State of the Union speech will take these ideas forward before first conclusions could be drawn at the December 2017 European Council. This should help decide on a course of action to be rolled out in time for the European Parliament elections in June 2019.

We citizens of the EU and our elected representatives in the European Parliament have the chance to think about the external threats and opportunities, as well as the internal weaknesses and strengths of the EU, in order to demand a better future from  the European Council, which has Europe’s future in its hands.

Ralf Grahn