When opinion polls useful for the Future of Europe?

In the blog post State of the Union: public opinion I wondered at the usefulness of the latest Standard Eurobarometer 87 (fieldwork in May 2017), and the timing and value of the three reports of the special Eurobarometer 461 opinion poll purportedly dedicated to Designing Europe’s Future  (fieldwork in April 2017).

Great if people value the European Union and its policy areas more, but why do the opinion polls not ask the citizens of the EU about the kind of union they want for the future?

Do the citizens of the union want an undemocratic state-owned European Union or a democratic EU? Given (an understanding of) the external threats and internal challenges, do they want to give the European Union or Eurozone effective powers, or do they prefer to hide their heads in the sand? Which powers should belong at the European level, which should be left with member states, regions, municipalities and individuals, according to an evidence-based view of value added, proportionality and subsidiarity? Are citizens prepared to trust their directly elected European Parliament, the European Commission promoting the general interest, or the European Council and Council (of ministers), which primarily guard their own turf? What do the citizens of the union think about the reform initiatives of the European Parliament, Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and the French president Emmanuel Macron?

I decided to phrase these questions in a incisive manner, in order to show the kind of questions and answers a real debate about the future of Europe requires.

Parlemeter 2017

The fresh opinion poll commissioned by the European Parliament, Parlemeter 2017: A stronger voice: Citizens’ views of Parliament and the EU, confirms the positive general trends regarding public opinion on the European Union and confirms observations about their views on rights and priority policies.

With regard to the questions I posed, the Parlemeter 2017 (page 26) makes two additional observations. The first one is a bit mystifying; it concerns something I must have failed to see in the (“first results” of the) Eurobarometer 87, even if the footnote on the page links to the same survey:

According to the European Commission Standard Eurobarometer 87, the European Parliament is the European institution with the highest level of confidence expressed by Europeans: 45% of citizens tend to trust this institution. 41% trust the European Commission, while 37% trust the European Central Bank. Overall, 42% of respondents declare their trust in the European Union. Confidence in the EU and the European Parliament is therefore also higher than the one held for national parliaments (36%) and for national governments (37%).     

Even here we see no separate score for the European Council or the Council of the European Union.  

The second additional remark shows clearly more positive perceptions of the European Parliament during the last year:     

Even though many respondents (42%) keeps a “neutral image” of the European Parliament, the number of people who have a positive view of the institution is undoubtedly on the rise (33% compared to 25% in September 2016). This increase results in a direct decline of respondents who have a negative opinion of this institution, while the share of those who hold a neutral view remains rather stable between 41% and 46% during the past ten years.

Useful, or at least interesting fragments, but we are still left with the question: When are the European Commission and the European Parliament going to provide opinion polls useful for the debate about the future of Europe?

Or should I have looked elsewhere?  

Ralf Grahn

EU Lisbon Treaty: Vaclav Klaus was losing support

On 17 October 2009 Czech Happenings reported a new SANEP poll, which indicated that President Vaclav Klaus was rapidly losing support for his rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon.

Some 58 percent ─ up 14 percentage points from the beginning of October ─ were of the view that Klaus’ attitude was harming the Czech Republic's position within the EU and that he should sign the Lisbon Treaty instantly.



The recorded result explains the earlier SANEP poll and it is in line with the STEM agency poll we mentioned in yesterday’s blog post “EU Lisbon Treaty: Czech polls stink”. This makes the contradictory Median agency poll ─ hugely supportive of Klaus’ obstruction ─ look even more of an inexplicable aberration.


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Klaus had cast the role of the heroic defender of the national interest for himself, but the Czechs increasingly saw him as an embarrassment. What could he do?



Ralf Grahn

EU Lisbon Treaty: Czech polls stink

Czech Happenings reported on a SANEP poll, which said that 43 per cent of Czechs think that President Vaclav Klaus should immediately sign the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon, and 44 percent of people were convinced that postponing the signature harms the Czech Republic's name within the EU.



Soon afterwards, Czech Happenings reported on another poll, by the STEM agency, which found that three fifths of the Czechs were of the opinion that Klaus harms the Czech Republic by postponing his signature on the Lisbon treaty to complete its ratification, and three fifths said that Klaus should sign the EU reform treaty immediately after the Constitutional Court confirms that the document is in compliance with the Czech constitutional order.

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Median agency poll



Suddenly, Czech Happenings reports on a Median agency poll, which tells us that sixty five per cent of Czechs support President Vaclav Klaus’ crusade against the Lisbon Treaty. Three quarters think that Klaus should not resign, if he does not sign the treaty.


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Professionalism or propaganda?


First, we notice a difference of almost 20 percentage points between the SANEP and the STEM polls, even if both seem to underline the public understanding for President Vaclav Klaus to end his obstruction and to stop harming his country.

But these differences pale into insignificance, when confronted with the Median poll, which reads like a ringing endorsement of President Klaus’ action (and which unsurprisingly has been trumpeted by some anti-EU campaigners).

The huge discrepancies cast a doubt on the professionalism and work ethics of Czech pollsters. Are they more than paid agents in propaganda wars?

Can anyone ─ including the agencies in question ─ offer plausible explanations?



Ralf Grahn

Barroso: Our opinion counts?

I owe this post to Jean Quatremer’s Coulisses de Bruxelles: Toi aussi hacke le site de la présidence tchèque de l’UE ! (17 June 2009)



Instead of convening to anoint José Manuel Barroso as chief of the European Commission, the European Council should study the outcome of the survey of the Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union.

The Czech government asked, in three languages: Should José Manuel Barroso be re-appointed as President of the European Commission?

The results against Barroso (No-votes) were (per 8 June 2009, according to the web page; when I checked a little while ago):


• English 75%
• Czech 82%
• French 89%

Such polls are not especially reliable, but if the acting Council Presidency asks the citizens of the European Union, one would expect their opinion to be taken into account.

We live in a union where decisions are taken as openly as possible and as closely as possible to the citizen, don’t we?


Ralf Grahn

Swedish opinion on euro turns

For the first time an opinion poll shows more Swedes in favour of adopting the euro currency than those opposed. SR International – Radio Sweden reports that 47 per cent would now vote “Yes”, while 45 per cent would vote “No”: Swedes In Favour Of Euro (19 April 2009).


In the 2003 referendum 56 per cent voted against and 42 per cent for euro adoption.

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The shift in opinion has become more marked during the economic downturn, which has seen the Swedish Crown lose in value.

The Swedish Liberal Party has actively pushed for Sweden to join the Eurozone, while other parties have ranged between outright hostility to a wait and see attitude.

Legally Sweden has an obligation to adopt the euro, since it has no opt-out in place or in the Lisbon Treaty.


Ralf Grahn