When opinion polls useful for the Future of Europe?

In the blog post State of the Union: public opinion I wondered at the usefulness of the latest Standard Eurobarometer 87 (fieldwork in May 2017), and the timing and value of the three reports of the special Eurobarometer 461 opinion poll purportedly dedicated to Designing Europe’s Future  (fieldwork in April 2017).

Great if people value the European Union and its policy areas more, but why do the opinion polls not ask the citizens of the EU about the kind of union they want for the future?

Do the citizens of the union want an undemocratic state-owned European Union or a democratic EU? Given (an understanding of) the external threats and internal challenges, do they want to give the European Union or Eurozone effective powers, or do they prefer to hide their heads in the sand? Which powers should belong at the European level, which should be left with member states, regions, municipalities and individuals, according to an evidence-based view of value added, proportionality and subsidiarity? Are citizens prepared to trust their directly elected European Parliament, the European Commission promoting the general interest, or the European Council and Council (of ministers), which primarily guard their own turf? What do the citizens of the union think about the reform initiatives of the European Parliament, Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and the French president Emmanuel Macron?

I decided to phrase these questions in a incisive manner, in order to show the kind of questions and answers a real debate about the future of Europe requires.

Parlemeter 2017

The fresh opinion poll commissioned by the European Parliament, Parlemeter 2017: A stronger voice: Citizens’ views of Parliament and the EU, confirms the positive general trends regarding public opinion on the European Union and confirms observations about their views on rights and priority policies.

With regard to the questions I posed, the Parlemeter 2017 (page 26) makes two additional observations. The first one is a bit mystifying; it concerns something I must have failed to see in the (“first results” of the) Eurobarometer 87, even if the footnote on the page links to the same survey:

According to the European Commission Standard Eurobarometer 87, the European Parliament is the European institution with the highest level of confidence expressed by Europeans: 45% of citizens tend to trust this institution. 41% trust the European Commission, while 37% trust the European Central Bank. Overall, 42% of respondents declare their trust in the European Union. Confidence in the EU and the European Parliament is therefore also higher than the one held for national parliaments (36%) and for national governments (37%).     

Even here we see no separate score for the European Council or the Council of the European Union.  

The second additional remark shows clearly more positive perceptions of the European Parliament during the last year:     

Even though many respondents (42%) keeps a “neutral image” of the European Parliament, the number of people who have a positive view of the institution is undoubtedly on the rise (33% compared to 25% in September 2016). This increase results in a direct decline of respondents who have a negative opinion of this institution, while the share of those who hold a neutral view remains rather stable between 41% and 46% during the past ten years.

Useful, or at least interesting fragments, but we are still left with the question: When are the European Commission and the European Parliament going to provide opinion polls useful for the debate about the future of Europe?

Or should I have looked elsewhere?  

Ralf Grahn

State of the Union: public opinion

After checking the European Commission’s State of the Union 2017 web page, we turn to the State of the Union 2017 brochure, where the next section is called The state of public opinion in the EU (from page 69).

The UK’s Brexit mess, terrorist attacks, economic progress, together with election results in member states and abroad have contributed to stronger feelings about the need for the European Union among citizens.

Eurobarometer 87

The SOTEU 2017 brochure presents five graphs based on the latest Eurobarometer survey, but those interested can go to further downloadable reading: Standard Eurobarometer 87 - Spring 2017 (EB87; the field work was done in May and the first results were published in August 2017).

Terrorism and immigration

Terrorism has passed immigration as the greatest European level concern among EU citizens, both worries well ahead of the economic situation, the public finances of the respondent’s own country and unemployment (when each respondent named two).

At national level unemployment, immigration, health and social security, plus terrorism are the four main concerns, but here as on other issues those interested can study the differences between member states.

EU support and reform

More than half of the population (56%) is now optimistic about the future of the European Union (EB87 page 21). There is support for EU action and reform (page 31):

EU citizens support the EU priorities and common policies tested in the survey. Though varying in intensity from one statement to another, more than half of Europeans approve of all these policies, with the exception of further enlargement of the EU.

More than eight in ten Europeans support “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU” (81%, unchanged since autumn 2016). Three-quarters support “a common defence and security policy among EU Member States” (75%, unchanged), and 72% are for “a common energy policy among EU Member States” (72%, -1 percentage point). Around two-thirds of Europeans support “a common European policy on migration“ (68%, -1) and “a common foreign policy of the 28 Member States of the EU” (66%, unchanged). Around six Europeans in ten are in favour of “a digital single market within the EU” (61%, +2) and “a European economic and monetary union with one single currency, the euro” (60%, +2). More than half of respondents support “a free trade and investment agreement between the EU and the USA” (54%, +1). “Further

enlargement of the EU to include other countries in future years” is the single statement that is supported by only a minority of respondents: 40% are “for” (+1), while 49% are “against” (-2).

Even if they approve of current policies and potentially support more unitary policies, except for EU enlargement, sadly these Eurobarometer questions are too blunt to show how receptive citizens are to more detailed proposals for real EU reform.

Free movement of EU citizens

The EU27 and Michel Barnier get backing, by the overwhelming support for the free movement of people (EU citizens). Brexit tabloids and crusaders have something to think about, or do the British support free movement only for themselves? See EB87 page 32:

A large majority of Europeans in all 28 EU Member States continue to support “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU” (81%, unchanged since autumn 2016); majorities support free movement in proportions varying from 94% in the three Baltic States, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, to 69% in Italy and 70% in the United Kingdom. Opposition to the free movement of EU citizens remains limited: it reaches or exceeds 20% in four countries: Austria (22%), Italy (22%), the United Kingdom (21%) and Denmark (20%).

Euro area

Creating a real economic and monetary union (EMU) is on the EU reform agenda, as is the invitation to non-euro countries to join the euro area. The common currency is becoming more attractive in the euro countries, but people in the countries outside are still reticent (page 33):

In the euro area, close to three-quarters of respondents support the euro (73%, +3 percentage points, vs. 22%, -3), which has reached its highest score since autumn 2004. Outside the euro area, a majority of respondents continue to oppose the single currency (58% “against”, -1, vs. 33% “for”, unchanged).

Six in ten EU citizens are in favour of  “a European economic and monetary union with one single currency, the euro” (60% “for”, +2 percentage points since autumn 2016), whereas 34% say they are against (-2). This is the first time since autumn 2009 that support for the euro has reached the 60% threshold in the whole European Union.

Designing Europe’s future

The title of the Special Eurobarometer 461 ‘Designing Europe’s future’ sounds promising, but how much wiser do we get regarding the EU reform agenda, if we read the three reports reflecting field work in April 2017?

The first report, which included questions on trust in various institutions, opinions about globalisation and its impact, and opinions about support for the euro, free-trade and solidarity, did not seem to ask or get clear responses about support for EU reform, but perhaps for existing policies with or without a demand for reform.

The second report, on security and defence, is perhaps somewhat clearer. Even if the EU supposedly has a common foreign and security policy and a common security and defence policy, the support for an EU army clearly goes beyond the current treaties (text picked from page 21):

Almost two-thirds of Europeans continue to support a common foreign policy of the 28 EU Member States. In all countries except Sweden, at least half of respondents are for a common foreign policy of the 28 EU Member states of the EU.

Three-quarters of EU citizens are for a common defence and security policy among EU Member States, and this proportion has remained above the 70% threshold since 2004. A clear majority of respondents in all EU Member States support a common defence and security policy among EU Member States.

More than half of Europeans are in favour of creating an EU army; conversely, almost four in ten are opposed to it. In 23 Member States, a majority of respondents are in favour of the creation of an EU army. The exceptions are the United Kingdom, Sweden, Finland, Austria and Ireland.

Logically, an EU army presupposes a unitary foreign, security and defence policy, which in turn require democratic government according to European values.

The third report, about the EU budget, could be said to be an extremely early bird for the EU citizens to design the future of the union. The Monti report on the EU budget (own resources) was new and far from widely known, and the Commission’s reflection paper on the future of EU finances was still about two and a half months into the future.

The Special Eurobarometer 461 survey shows that a growing proportion wants to increase the EU budget (by now, as many as those against), but the respondents know little about how EU resources are spent. They want to spend more in areas where the EU lacks real powers. Since respondents do not know even the basics about the EU budget, the opinion poll demonstrates a clear need for civic education.

***

Better and more enlightening political leadership is needed for a higher level of public discussion about the EU reform agenda, but where would that come from?

Ownership is probably the best teacher. Since 68% of Europeans already feel they are citizens of the EU, how about giving them full political rights as part of the EU reform agenda?

Ralf Grahn

Hungarian media law and EU Council presidency: Evolving European opinion

A measure of European public opinion is already reflected on multilingual Bloggingportal.eu, which aggregates 732 Euroblogs. The Hungarian media law is one of the recurring themes on the front page.

Naturally, there is an impact from the fact that the Bloggingportal.eu blog called for action against censorship in Hungary (21 December 2010), but all journalists, newspapers and bloggers follow their own conscience and express their own views. There is a link to OSCE's legal analysis, and sixty comments present some of the reactions to the call.


Hungary topics page

Let us turn to the topics page on Hungary to see the impression the Fidesz (member of the European People's Party, EPP) government of Viktor Orban has made among European journalists and bloggers.You can see the Hungary topics page for yourself (and return for possible updates), but I will refer to and comment on a few blog posts at a time.


Netzpolitik

Netzpolitik.org was one of the first European blogs outside Hungary to react to the media law (in German): Hintergründe zum ungarischen Mediengesetz (21 December 2010). The informative blog post is followed by 47 comments with complementing views and links.


Metronaut

China is great in many ways. However, when we speak about freedom of opinion, the parallel with China is hardly flattering for an EU member state, but this is how Metronaut referred to the Hungarian media law due to its authoritarian character (in German): Zensur in Ungarn: China mitten in Europa (22 December 2010).

Metronaut wondered at the silence from European governments (with the exception of Luxembourg).


EESC

Vice-president Anna Maria Darmanin, responsible for communication at the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), wrote on her blog at the EESC website that the media law casts a black cloud over the commencement of the Hungarian Presidency, and that she believed that any attempt to reduce the freedom expression is a direct attack on democracy and in the longer term a disservice to the whole country and its citizens. Darmanin joined the Bloggingportal.eu action against censorship: Hungary's media law raises eyebrows and concerns (22 December 2010).

***

When I reread these blog posts, I find them serious and reasoned, hardly evil spirited, party political or emotional outbursts of the kind Hungarian government representatives have depicted. But, dear readers, that is for you to judge.



Ralf Grahn

P.S. I want you, my readers and friends, to follow blogs on European issues and – why not – start blogging yourselves. Today I want to highlight the blog of Irish Eroblogger Stephen Spillane, who deals with current issues in Europe and Ireland.

Barroso: The state of the Commission’s Work Programme

Yesterday The European Citizen called José Manuel Barroso’s “State of the Union” address The Commissarial Speech (8 September 2010).

According to Eurocentric:

The speech itself actually wasn't that bad, if you dropped your preconceptions about the State of the Union imagery. As Honor Mahony pointed out, it was quite good as a work programme speech (particularly for a Barroso-speech).

Honor Mahony’s EUobserver blog post The speech (7 September 2010).


In my view, Eurocentric and Mahony clearly showed the conflict between a speech about the Commission's Work Programme (which it was) and a State of the Union address (which it wasn't, but was marketed as).

Underlining the 'special relationship' between the Commission and the European Parliament meant that Barroso directed the speech even more at the MEPs, who know pretty well what's coming up in their Committees anyway, and are fairly blasé.

This effectively excluded a speech to the citizens of the European Union, as well as themes, concerns and images they (we) relate to.

Eurocentric’s headline and post encapsulated this well.

For some strange reason, both Commission leadership (president Barroso) and EP leaders (president Jerzy Buzek) have wanted to market Barroso’s speech as an EU “State of the Union” address (a first), and the concept lies buried in an obscure point in an annex to the revised framework agreement on relations between the European Parliament and the Commission, soon to be approved and to enter into force.




However, essentially Barroso’s intervention was about the Commission’s Work Programme for 2011, which he presented in two parts: a letter to the Members of the European Parliament and in his speech to the EP plenary session.

Read them as such, and they begin to make sense.

But what should they call it, when some day one of the EU presidents decides to starts discussing with the citizens of the European Union?

A fireside chat?




Ralf Grahn

Open Europe improving its spin on Eurobarometer?

Spin and gloss are expressions related to the very human desire to present the emitter in the best light possible.

If the original communication is questioned and debated, this may lead to refined replies, which bring the discussion forward.

Did Open Europe improve its reasoning and advance the debate by yesterday, when Mats Persson again presented his views on the European Commission and EU-wide public opinion?



Persson’s opinions were published on the Swedish EU affairs portal Europaportalen: “EU drar missvisande slutsatser av opinionsmätningar” (The EU draws misleading conclusions from opinion polls).

It seems to me that Persson reiterates – practically verbatim – in Swedish what Open Europe and he said on the publication of the Eurobarometer results 26 August 2010.

Although directed at the Commission, possibly the last sentences contain a germ of willingness by Open Europe to listen to Europeans and to be prepared to discuss economic reform issues in a more pragmatic manner:

… borde kommissionen lyssna på vad medborgare runtom Europa verkligen säger – och sen dra sitt strå still stacken för att åstadkomma genuina EU-reformer efter medborgarnas önskemål.

Detta skulle till och med kunna bidra till att vända några av de minde smickrande opinionerna.

This may be only speculation based on purely cosmetic changes to the message, but if the change is substantive, the Eurobarometer discussion may have taken a small step forward.

However, as Persson must know, the European Union is basically a creature of the member states, so they have to start listening and reforming with at least the level of dedication Open Europe demands from the Commission.

Targeting only the Commission is – spin.




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.

Communicating Europe: Reding’s revolution

How is the European Union responding to public opinion and media trends?



Conducted during the triple crisis – financial sector, economy and eurozone - Eurobarometer 73, Public opinion in the European Union (First results) recorded sinking support for what the EU has actually achieved, but possibly clear acceptance of future EU level action to sort out the economic mess and to promote job creation.



Europeans keep migrating to lively, chaotic and interactive social media platforms, such as Twitter and Facebook.



European Commission

One part of what the European Union does as a whole is supplied by the European Commission, also in the area of communication.




EurActiv reports that the Commission plans communication ‘revolution’. Commissioner Viviane Reding, who is responsible for communication, wants to bring about a "culture shock" and genuine "revolution" of existing Brussels communication methods.

Reding’s plan includes structural change in a re-branding centred on President José Manuel Barroso, increased centralisation of public communications, a new organisational chart and a key reshuffle of top officials.

Reding aims for stronger centralisation in the delivery of messages, although flexibility will be allowed with regard to the forms.



Val Duchesse



Yesterday and today, the College of Commissioners is meeting informally in the Castle Val Duchesse (1 to 2 September 2010). In substance, the notice on the ‘EC College Seminar’ tells us that the Commissioners are going to discuss the Commission programme for the rest of 2010. The rest of the webpage is pure filling.

According to EurActiv, Reding’s plan was going to be discussed, but we do not know how much acclaim the strategy for Barroso’s stardom and henchmen is getting from the rest of the Commissioners, who are among the possible losers together with the online and social media pioneers.



Outside reactions

The drive towards personalisation, centralisation, old media favouritism and pet journalists has resulted in a few early reactions outside the lofty Berlaymont chambers and the cosy chateau milieu.

We may ask if the Reding plan has "the atmosphere of a better age", as in Evelyn Waugh’s Brideshead Revisited.



Michael Malherbe on Lacomeuropéenne (Se former à la communication européenne) asked if it is correct to speak about a revolution: Faut il parler de « révolution » de la communication de l’UE comme Viviane Reding ?

Malherbe’s conclusion is that Reding offers a plan for a bygone age:

... une stratégie ante-web, oublieuse de l’intérêt d’un dialogue nourri avec les multiplicateurs d’opinion et de partenariats avec des relais institutionnels ou associatifs.

The Watts On blog dissects five false assumptions Reding’s plan rests on, in the entry: The Commission should be focussing on policies not personalities.

After undermining the foundations, “Watts” offers the following advice for a profound Commission rethink:

It needs to be more open, more focused on policy and delivery rather than personalities, more serious about tackling those ’causes’, more strategic in its approach to issues and, above all, more engaged in directly having a two way dialogue with the citizen.

In Rivoluzione d’autunno, Matizandrea has a hard time believing in a stunning revolution, asking ironically: Are they going to learn how to use SMS?



The Brussels Jungle pulls a virtual scoop on the Commission’s communication revolution by describing the Commission’s imaginative (and imaginary) plans for an animated TV series, in response to the virtual Citzalia world of the European Parliament. No prizes for guessing who the main characters – Redi and José – resemble in real life.


Sit up and take notice when those who wish the European Union well and ill seem to agree on the substance, even if not on the presentation.



In the spirit of the Albion Alliance, the Autonomous Mind blog describes the EU Commission plan as a vanity propaganda effort.



Next steps

My humble advice regarding the next steps:


What if the Commissioners in Val Duchesse started by locating the paper shredder and then decided to enter the fascinating world of 21st century communication?




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.

Eurobarometer: Separating the wheat from the chaff

Since the spring 2009 Eurobarometer, EU citizens see unemployment and the economic situation as the main worries facing their country. In May 2010 rising prices (inflation) are still the principal concern at a personal level (although with great differences between countries), followed by the economic situation and unemployment.

About four out of five respondents feel that the national, the EU and the world economy are in a bad shape, and more than a third experience the domestic employment situation as “very bad”.



It’s the economy, stupid


Now put yourself in the position of the European Commission, treaty bound to promote the general interest of the European Union.



Confronted with the First Results of the Spring 2010 Standard Eurobarometer 73, could you realistically contemplate ignoring or even downplaying the massive evidence of public opinion, what Europeans are worried about?

Writing your press release, could you disregard that these citizens expect more from the European Union than from their national governments or international financial institutions? (We are going to return to the expectations in a future blog post.)



It’s the economy, stupid, said a curious Yankee in Europe’s court: US and EU citizens share common priorities about economic woes.

Could you refuse to take notice, in good faith?

Hardly.



Back to square one

Discussion can improve our understanding, if we are willing to look at the evidence and test various claims in order to arrive at reasonable interpretations and conclusions.

Big ifs, it seems.

The hyperactive Swedish libertarian blogger Henrik Alexandersson works for the Pirate Party (Green Group) MEP Christian Engström in the European Parliament, and he produces a mass of blog entries on important issues, such as data retention, privacy, netizens’ rights and intellectual property rights.



To keep his libertarian juices flowing, he regularly takes swipes at the European Union. In a blog post yesterday he accused the Commission of cheating in a press release: EU fifflar med opinionen.

Henriksson does not mention the Eurobarometer poll. He does not even specify the ‘dishonest’press release or link to it.



He disregards the whole Eurobarometer controversy and the later discussion, uncritically using Open Europe’s blog post as his only source and link.

No hearing the other side - Audiatur et altera pars - for Henriksson.



Almost a week from the EU Commission’s press release (26 August 2010, IP/10/1071; available in 22 languages) and Open Europe’s vehement attack, Henriksson brings the discussion back to square one, having learnt nothing in the meantime.

Henriksson may have indulged his readers by feeding their prejudices, but he did nothing to make the discussion move forward.



The attitude of the French blog La lettre volée is as cavalier, dismissing the Commission’s interpretation as Orwellian, without caring to look at the facts and arguments.

Pretty useless, in fact.



Commission press release



I already opined that it would have been unbelievable if the European Commission had disregarded the massive worries of Europeans - economic ones - and ignored citizens’ expectations concerning EU level action, but the press release did actually mention sinking support for EU membership, even if discreetly and in context:

When asked about the benefits of EU membership, 49% of Europeans said in May that EU membership of their country was a “good thing” (-4 compared to autumn 2009). Public support for EU membership was still higher than in 2001, when following the downturn after the burst of the "Internet bubble", public support for EU membership stood at 48%.

The survey also found that in May 2010 trust in the EU institutions remained higher compared to national governments or national parliaments (42% vs. 29% and 31%, respectively), even though confidence in the EU fell at the height of the crisis (to 42% from 48% in autumn 2009). Trust was most pronounced in Estonia (68%), Slovakia (65%), Bulgaria and Denmark (61%), whilst it was lowest in the United Kingdom (20%).

In addition, confidence in the EU and national governments/parliaments from spring 2001 to spring 2010 was depicted in one of the few selected charts in the press release, which also contained a link to the first full results and country factsheets.




Having sorted out the chaff, let us move on to the wheat.




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.

Eurobarometer: Europeans worried about unemployment and economy

The media roundup of the EU-wide opinion poll, Eurobarometer, revealed four strands of news reporting and commentary: Stress on economic challenges, or plunging support for EU membership, scepticism towards public opinion polls like Eurobarometer, and available in ten languages on Presseurop Marco Zatterin’s possible synthesis of citizens’ expectations and lack of delivery by EU institutions.



You can follow Marco Zatterin’s Italian blog Straneuropa on La Stampa.



What can we learn from the questions and answers in the Spring 2010 Standard Eurobarometer 73 (First Results), if we take a closer look?

[A technical note, in case others experience the same problems: Every time I have used the Google Chrome browser to access the Eurobarometer poll I have failed to open the pdf document. If I use Internet Explorer, the Eurobarometer document opens easily.]



Eurobarometer background



The field work was carried out by the TNS Opinion & Social network in May 2010, when the financial, economic and eurozone crises were acutely felt, but the counter-measures by the European Union were mainly political declarations, preparatory work or promised proposals.



During the interview period, prime ministers and finance ministers were busy with the eurozone rescue of Greece, the European financial stabilisation mechanism (EFSM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The intergovernmental, euro area and EU-wide measures announced were more chaotic and hard to understand than transparent or reassuring.

There was also resentment in the air. In a number of member states, such as the so called PIIGs, the “prodigal son” linked hardship with EU rules on reducing public deficits and debt, while the “older son” grumbled why he should pay for the good-for-nothings.



Main concerns

I do not find it surprising that about four out of five respondents felt that the national, the EU and the world economy were in a bad shape. The domestic employment situation was seen as very bad by 34 per cent (page 7). If anything, the small shifts were towards pessimism.

Although the citizens were a bit more optimistic about their own financial and job situation, they experienced no real turn for the better (page 8).

I would not read too much into small percentage shifts when people were asked to name the two most important issues facing their country.

Two faces of the same coin continue to dominate people’s worries since the spring 2009 Eurobarometer: unemployment and the economic situation. Regarding their own country, respondent were less concerned about rising prices (inflation), crime and healthcare, among the fourteen alternatives offered.

However, rising prices (inflation) remained the major anxiety at a personal level, especially in troubled new member states.

Costs of living affect everyone directly, whereas the general economic situation is somewhat more abstract and unemployment hits only a part of the population (page 10).



The mood among EU citizens almost four months ago was sombre, but sentiments may have improved somewhat since then (AFP). There are signs of recovery and rising confidence, but the signals are uneven, and many member states are still in deep trouble.



The wide discrepancies between euro area countries have not laid speculation about the future of the common currency to rest, as experienced on the shop floor by Wolfgang Münchau in the Financial Times.

We have to evaluate the levels of trust and the actions meriting confidence against this background.



Kupchan and Matizandrea



In The Washington Post, Charles Kupchan took a broad and pessimistic or realistic view of the state of the EU: As nationalism rises, will the European Union fail?



I first noticed Kupchan’s thought-provoking article through Daniel Mason of The Endless Track blog.



I also found a comment (in Italian) about the Eurobarometer poll on Matizandrea’s Blog: Quarantadue percento (Forty two per cent).




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

Eurobarometer media roundup reveals four readings

From a summary of the Eurobarometer controversy we set course for our following harbour: a roundup of how the latest EU-wide poll of public opinion has been received. In Roundup haven we bunker facts and arguments for the next leg of our voyage.

We find four threads of thought in the news reports and comments on the latest Eurobarometer poll.



Economic challenges

Some of the news reports and comments have focused on the growing demand for economic policy coordination and reform, the points the European Commission chose to highlight in its press release.



It’s the economy, stupid, said a curious Yankee in Europe’s court, intimating that US and EU citizens share common priorities about economic woes.



On the WSJ Real Time Brussels blog, John W. Miller highlighted a broad base of support for spending cuts and belt-tightening.



The Eurolocal blog gives extended coverage (in Catalan) to the support for economic reform: Els ciutadans de la UE, a favor de reforçar la governanca econòmica europea!



Plunging EU support

Much of the news reporting concentrated on the sinking levels of support for EU membership, something Open Europe also stressed, besides bitching about the Commission.



Marcin Grajewski recorded for Reuters that popular support for European Union membership had fallen to a nine-year low, in May when the EU was hit by sovereign-debt problems and when some member states were in recession.



Meera Louis, for Bloomberg, reported that Europeans’ confidence in the European Union dropped to a six-year low as the 27-nation bloc battled the Greece-led debt crisis.



Even prospective members have gone cold on the European project, with just 27% of Turks saying they trust Brussels, said the Bulgarian news agency Novinite.com.



Public support for the European Union has collapsed to a nine-year low in all of its 27 countries, was the reading of The Daily Express in the United Kingdom, news warmly received by anti-EU commentators.



Euro(barometer) sceptics



The European Citizen was sceptic about the possibilities to draw real policy conclusions from vague Eurobarometer questions and answers. In his latest comment, Eurocentric thought it was a pity that the Commission and Open Europe thought that they had to spin the results. He has now posted a German version of the post on the blog Ein europäischer Bürger.



According to Gary Finnegan, asking vague questions which invite predictable answers, and then concluding that the respondants support your political position is wrong.



Emerging synthesis?



In an opinion piece on Presseurop, Marco Zatterin reaches a synthesis. The European Union is plunging in the polls because more and more people feel the EU should be the one to solve the problems of the recession. As a matter of fact, three quarters of Europe is calling for more policy coordination.

Fewer people believe Europe is “a good thing” not because they’re against integration per se, but because they feel betrayed by the 27 and the way they’re handling it. They are demanding more, wrote Zatterin.



The article was originally published La Stampa (in Italian): Il tradimento dell’Europa.



Besides the Italian original and the English translation, Presseurop has published versions in Czech, Dutch, French, German, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian and Spanish.



Detailed discussion



These are the four main strands I was able to find. Most of the instant news reporting fell into one of two categories, either focusing on the demand for more ‘economic governance’ at EU level, or highlighting the declining support for membership in the European Union.

A third line of thought found expression in scepticism regarding the value of opinion polls like Eurobarometer.

A fourth thread was presented in the La Stampa / Presseurop article available in ten languages. Marco Zatterin drew his conclusions about the great expectations of Europeans and the failed delivery by the EU institutions.

Our next stages require detailed study and discussion about individual questions and results reported in the Spring 2010 Eurobarometer. How much can we, in good conscience, read into the replies?




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

Eurobarometer controversy

The UK based anti-EU lobby group Open Europe managed, perhaps unintentionally, to stir up a debate at European level when they accused the European Commission of spinning the results of the Eurobarometer poll of public opinion in the European Union. After – as they might have seen it – beating the Commission to pulp, they finally reached what they saw as the main result: declining support for EU membership.

The EU Commission’s press release branded as dishonest by Open Europe can be found here (26 August 2010, IP/10/1071; available in 22 languages):



Spring 2010 Eurobarometer: EU citizens favour stronger European economic governance




All guns firing, Open Europe delivered its broadside from its blog, its daily press summary, its fortnightly bulletin and on Director Mats Persson’s blog.



In my humble view, Open Europe gave in to its urge to bash the Commission, while missing a golden opportunity to discuss growing European awareness of the need for economic reform at macro and micro level; that is, if Open Europe really is interested in these issues with the European public good at heart.



British exceptionalism



I had first discussed the political atmosphere and media climate in the United Kingdom, resulting in a high level of distrust and a low level of trust for the European Union, then pointed out how unique British public opinion is in its exceptionalism.



Spin or policy pointers?


My intention was to move on to the issue of declining support for the European Union, but then I felt that I had to take a closer look at Open Europe’s accusations and the European Commission’s “offending” press release.


Shorthand

My reading was that Open Europe seemed to have found particularly offensive that the headline of the press release and Commissioner Viviane Reding had used the words stronger or enhanced “economic governance” as shorthand for the 75 per cent EU-wide support for a “stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all the EU Member States”, the highest support (26 per cent) among institutions - national and international - for ability to “take effective actions against the financial and economic crisis”, as well as high support for some sort of economic reform agenda (reducing public deficit and debt in respondent’s own country, surveillance of international financial groups, and for priorities of the EU 2020 reform strategy).


Challenges


Whether openly accounted for or not, the issues debated reflect fundamental assumptions about politics and policies at European level. Despite my tentative findings, the ongoing discussion and the detailed Eurobarometer results still merit a closer look.




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

Eurobarometer findings on EU public opinion: Open Europe blew it

In God We Trust is the official motto of the United States of America, surprisingly for a country where the first amendment enshrines the separation of church and state.

What do citizens of the European Union trust in?


The UK based anti-EU lobby group Open Europe has avidly seized on diminished support for the EU:



On 26 August 2010, the Open Europe blog accused the European Commission: A Classic Example Of EU Spin. According to Open Europe the Commission is “trying to take us for a ride”.



The main item of the Open Europe’s press summary 27 August 2010 was: Support for the EU falls to a nine year low; Only 50% of Germans consider EU membership “a good thing” – down 10 points in less than a year.



The main headline of the Fortnightly Open Europe Bulletin 27 August 2010: Support for EU hits nine-year low. Open Europe called the European Commission’s press release a blatant and dishonest (taxpayer-funded) attempt by the Commission to spin clearly unfavorable poll results.



The same day, Open Europe Director Mats Persson recycled the allegation in a post on his EUobserver blog: An exceptionally poor attempt at spinning unfavourable poll results.


Commission press release

Let us go to the EU Commission’s offending press release (26 August 2010, IP/10/1071; available in 22 languages):



Spring 2010 Eurobarometer: EU citizens favour stronger European economic governance


Open Europe seems to have found particularly offensive that the headline of the press release and Commissioner Viviane Reding used the words stronger or enhanced “economic governance” as shorthand for the 75 per cent EU-wide support for a “stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all the EU Member States”, the highest support (26 per cent) among institutions - national and international - for ability to “take effective actions against the financial and economic crisis”, as well as high support for some sort of economic reform agenda (reducing public deficit and debt in respondent’s own country, surveillance of international financial groups, and for priorities of the EU 2020 reform strategy).

Actually, sensible enterprise interest groups and single market supporters notice promising signs of European awareness of the need for economic reform, at macro and micro level.


What is Open Europe playing at?

But professedly pro-market Open Europe, worried about “pressing challenges of weak economic growth, rising global competition, insecurity and a looming demographic crisis” blew it.

Blew it by playing with words, instead of looking at the substance.

This is the benign interpretation. It is possible that Open Europe’s interests lie elsewhere, not in a general European interest to achieve economic reform.

A more worrying alternative is dogmatism: that the overriding ideological aim of Open Europe is to dismantle or roll back the European Union, so much so that the interest of functioning economies and markets come second.

Another possibility is that the real agenda of Open Europe is to keep the EU too weak to coordinate economic policies and in order to protect the particular interests of a few financial institutions from sensible supervision.

Or are there still other reasons for such vehemence against ‘economic governance’?



The European Citizen wisely said the Eurobarometer results are vague, and that policy makers and supporters will have to make the cases for their ideas and try and win support for them.

Open Europe’s urge to bash the Commission got in the way of a golden opportunity to boost the economic reform agenda of the European Union, but perhaps this is but a minor concern for this lobby group and its backers.

EU citizens trust in economic reform and in the European Union, more than in their national government or parliament, but what does Open Europe trust in?




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

From Paint It Black to Moses? UK public opinion on EU

Yesterday’s blog post, UK Eurobarometer score: Euromyths 68 - Trust 20, discussed the media climate and public opinion in the United Kingdom with regard to the European Union. The Eurobarometer findings are in line with what we have reported many times before, for instance the Angus Reid poll published in June 2010.



If we turn from the UK country factsheet of the Spring 2010 Standard Eurobarometer 73, which compares the country only with EU averages, to the full first results, we see the uniqueness of public opinion in Britain.

In May 2010, the general level of trust in the European Union had plummeted from 48 to 42 per cent. Estonia reported the highest trust score, 68 per cent, with 22 per cent tending to be distrustful of the European Union (pages 15 and 16).

Not only did the United Kingdom report almost the reverse numbers – 68 per cent distrusting and 20 per cent trustful – but the second lowest trust score among all 27 member states was the 37 per cent reported from Germany, almost twice the proportion in Britain.

The negativism of the political atmosphere, media climate and public opinion in the United Kingdom are truly exceptional, almost four decades after accession.


The view of European integration and the European Union in the UK is not bleak – it is tainted uniquely black.



Should the UK government (Pharaoh) listen to what the voters (Moses) have to say in “Go Down Moses”?

Namely: Let my people go.

Withdrawal or secession in Eurospeak.




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

UK Eurobarometer score: Euromyths 68 - Trust 20

About three months from the conclusion of the fieldwork, the first results of the regular Eurobarometer poll are out. Yesterday, many Twitter comments about the findings were like shells fired in an artillery battle between entrenched frontlines, but even with the best will in the world it is hard to be analytical in 140 characters about a survey of opinions in 27 EU member states (and candidate countries).



Not unsurprisingly, the untiring anti-EU munitions factory Open Europe uses its blog to accuse the European Commission of spin when highlighting the demand for crisis resolution by the European Union.



Anyone heard of “the pot calling the kettle black”?



The press summaries of Open Europe seem to translate the lobby group’s professed aim of radical EU reform into a daily tirade of negative quotes from disgruntled individuals all over Europe.



These selective snippets, as well as opinions and ‘research’ by Open Europe are then fired off by mass market media on the anti-EU campaign trail (examples The Telegraph, The Daily Mail, The Daily Express), as well as their high-profile columnists.



Various campaign groups (examples EU Referendum Campaign and the Bruges Group, mentioned by Eurogoblin) in the United Kingdom are only too happy to praise their Lords and pass the ammunition, hoping for V-Day in the form of an ‘out’ referendum.



Pot shots by ‘patriotic’ foot soldiers in the Angloblogosphere (examples EUReferendum blog, Witterings From Witney, The Talking Clock, Your Freedom and Ours, The Boiling Frog, John Redwood, the Taxpayers’ Alliance, Cranmer) echo the big guns by repeat fire consisting of legitimate criticism, one-sided cursing, twisted facts and pure Euromyths.



Because many of the ‘better off out’ blogs are content to quote each other, without caring to check or evaluate the original sources, many Euromyths keep making the rounds long after being exposed as complete bollocks.



Small wonder that critical but sane bloggers like Nosemonkey, Eurogoblin, The European Citizen, Atomic Spin, The Endless Track, Robert Jones, Euromove and WSJ Real Time Brussels repeatedly refute Euromyths or calmly disprove them by presenting more constructive views.



The saner voices may have the facts and arguments on their side, but they lack fire power. The anti-EU shelling – branded as eurosceptic - has turned public opinion in the United Kingdom, especially England, deeply suspicious of European integration and the European Union. According to Eurobarometer 73 (Spring 2010), in the UK only 20 per cent of the Crown subjects tend to trust the EU, while 68 per cent lack trust, so the levels of trust are way below the EU averages. Exceptionally, in Great Britain even the national parliament and government are slightly more trusted than the EU.

In the short run the negative attitudes are a problem for the European Union, but at a deeper level the disconnect between voter sentiment and rulers poses serious questions for the political system in the United Kingdom.

How far can the policy choices in a representative democracy legitimately be allowed to ennoble public opinion by straying from the views of the ruled?




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.