In the short term there are two problems of strategic importance with regard to the European Union itself. In the case of Britain, they are intertwined.
***
After tying the knot with ultra-conservative homophobes and other Europhobes, David Cameron and William Hague have continued their quest to cut a United Kingdom under a Conservative government even further adrift from Europe.
The latest demonstration is their
B I L L
TO Make provision for a referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon signed at Lisbon on 13 December 2007 for the suspension of the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008 until the result of that referendum; and for its repeal if the Treaty is not approved in the referendum.
***
The reader is reminded of the fact that the United Kingdom has already completed formal ratification of the EU Treaty of Lisbon, after approval by both Houses of Parliament.
The Lisbon Treaty has been approved by the parliaments in 26 out of 27 member states. Ireland has announced a referendum on the “better deal”.
***
Britain’s options
If the next general election brings in a Conservative government, the suspension and rejection of approval would either
a) frustrate the treaty reform process of the EU member states since 2000, leaving the European Union with the unsatisfactory Treaty of Nice (minus further UK repatriation of common policies), in case the Lisbon Treaty has not entered into force; or
b) lay the foundations for substantial renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with Europe, if the Lisbon Treaty is already in force.
The problem with the Conservatives’ attitude is that they seemingly want to eat the cake and have it too.
The straightforward policy would be to make a decision for or against withdrawal, with or without a referendum (in the country of “parliamentary sovereignty”).
If the United Kingdom wants to secede from the European Union, nobody will stop them. It would require detailed negotiations to deconstruct the manifold relationships, and to erect new structures, but it’s up to the British to start the negotiations.
However, it looks as if the Tories want even less responsibilities and show no team spirit, but wish to stay on the inside, in order to block progress between the EU member states.
Under the Nice Treaty their goals would be more limited, but if the Lisbon Treaty is in force, it is the foundation of the European Union, which means that a rejection would be tantamount to secession.
Cameron has announced that the following (long term) budget negotiations will give the United Kingdom needed leverage to ram through its demands. Veto power is generally the weapon of the rejectionists and obstructionists.
The political, media and popular discourse on Europe is such that secession would be a natural solution for Britain. The European Union would count its losses and go on with life, and the UK would search for its own role in world affairs and commercial relations.
***
What to do with Britain?
The insular British discussion tends to forget that their moods and actions have consequences for others.
The ability to take an outside view seems to be an even more scarce commodity in contemporary Britain than a tolerably accurate picture of what the EU is and isn’t.
The twofold strategy of the Conservatives will make Britain one of the main strategic short term headaches for the European Union (the other one is the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty).
In about a year’s time, the new Conservative government is going to demand a renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with Europe, smaller changes under the Nice Treaty or larger under the Lisbon Treaty.
(The Lisbon Treaty would either have crashed, or the UK would repudiate major parts of it.)
It is easy to imagine the annoyance felt by European leaders in both cases.
Their timid and consensual treaty reforms would come to nought, or at least provide the UK with even greater exceptions from common rules, while being able to halt progress almost at will.
Cameron has already promised to hold the next long term budget hostage to his demands (naturally shrinking the relative size of the EU budget and keeping the UK rebate at the same time).
With regard to the Lisbon Treaty, the political leaders can mainly watch things unfold in the Czech Republic, Germany, Ireland and Poland, so they are more or less reduced to passive bystanders.
But renegotiation of the United Kingdom’s membership terms requires treaty amendments. Here the national leaders have a real choice. This is actually one of the few instances, when veto powers favour a constructive policy.
***
Britain may feel that it has a problem with Europe, but Britain can cause a disproportionate amount of harm to Europe as a whole.
It is already clear, where a road paved with concessions would lead the EU’s member states and the European Union. Paralysis, palsy, impotence, immobility and erosion of team spirit offer a hint.
When approached, the member states should politely tell David Cameron and William Hague where to find the door. If the other EU leaders are quick about it, they might be able to agree on the next long term budget in a less poisoned atmosphere than promised by Cameron.
Ralf Grahn
Showing posts with label renegotiation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label renegotiation. Show all posts
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
European elections: New political group
Phobia is the common denominator: Europhobes join homophobes.
Small wonder that the UK Conservative Party and the Polish Law and Justice Party are going to form a political group in the European Parliament after the European elections. They will be joined by the Czech Civic Democrats (ODS), hovering between the Europhobia of President Vaclav Klaus and more pragmatic market oriented nationalism. They will probably attract some MEPs from nationalistic fringe parties in order to have representatives from at least seven EU member states.
The Group of the European People’s Party (EPP) will become a bit more coherent, but the main effect is that the new group rejects the European mainstream, including Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy and other national leaders, broadly supportive of British aims on the single market and world trade.
The other member states can hardly have missed the profound problems the Conservative European Election Manifesto, David Cameron and William Hague promise, if Britain stays on the inside of the European Union.
If UK government relationships with Europe have looked less than constructive until now, you ain’t seen nothing yet. We will just have to wait for the Conservative government to be voted in.
Demonstratively outside the European mainstream, Cameron will arrange his referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Then he will try to woo sympathy to renegotiate the UK’s relationship with other EU member states, firmly committed to the Lisbon Treaty, possibly in force at the time.
The Tories’ policies on Europe have all the makings of a strategic disaster spiced with tactical blunders.
Why should the other leaders of Europe go out of their way to help Cameron? Shouldn’t he reap what he has sown?
After all, the (other) member states need a functioning European Union.
Ralf Grahn
Small wonder that the UK Conservative Party and the Polish Law and Justice Party are going to form a political group in the European Parliament after the European elections. They will be joined by the Czech Civic Democrats (ODS), hovering between the Europhobia of President Vaclav Klaus and more pragmatic market oriented nationalism. They will probably attract some MEPs from nationalistic fringe parties in order to have representatives from at least seven EU member states.
The Group of the European People’s Party (EPP) will become a bit more coherent, but the main effect is that the new group rejects the European mainstream, including Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy and other national leaders, broadly supportive of British aims on the single market and world trade.
The other member states can hardly have missed the profound problems the Conservative European Election Manifesto, David Cameron and William Hague promise, if Britain stays on the inside of the European Union.
If UK government relationships with Europe have looked less than constructive until now, you ain’t seen nothing yet. We will just have to wait for the Conservative government to be voted in.
Demonstratively outside the European mainstream, Cameron will arrange his referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Then he will try to woo sympathy to renegotiate the UK’s relationship with other EU member states, firmly committed to the Lisbon Treaty, possibly in force at the time.
The Tories’ policies on Europe have all the makings of a strategic disaster spiced with tactical blunders.
Why should the other leaders of Europe go out of their way to help Cameron? Shouldn’t he reap what he has sown?
After all, the (other) member states need a functioning European Union.
Ralf Grahn
Wednesday, 27 May 2009
United Kingdom: European elections and EU membership
The United Kingdom has the third largest population among the EU member states. It is an important trading nation and financial centre. A constructive UK could be important for the foreign and security policies and defence of the European Union.
But Britain has been an awkward partner in Europe for three and a half decades, and the next general election seems destined to bring in a Conservative government with even less consideration for its European partners. The Tories have promised to put European integration in reverse, and they would most probably use the UK’s factual importance and veto powers to block EU progress for a long time.
***
CAP München
Ahead of the European Parliament elections the Centrum für angewandte Politikforschung (CAP; Center for Applied Policy Research) in Munich has published an impressive amount of analysis and comment on its web pages dedicated to the issues and campaigns (Themendossier zur Europawahl 2009).
***
Great Britain and Europe
Almut Möller: Europawahl 2009 in Großbritannien ─ Zwischen Desinteresse und Protest (European elections 2009 in Great Britain ─ Between lack of interest and protest; 18 May 2009; 4 pages) is a competent description of the British electoral scene and the intellectual climate with regard to Europe.
From a continental perspective, Möller describes a Britain where the European Parliament elections will make little European impact and where Europe is seen as unimportant. Even the elites show scant knowledge about Europe and the British way of handling the idea of Europe causes one to shake one’s head:
„Großbritannien und die EU: Man kennt sie nicht, man mag sie nicht – aber offenbar will man dabei sein
Die Europawahlen werden auch 2009 an Großbritannien vorbeiziehen, ohne „europäische“ Spuren zu hinterlassen. Die Briten werden entweder mit ähnlich geringem Interesse wählen wie in der Vergangenheit, und die Wahlbeteiligung wird erneut unter dem EU-weiten Durchschnitt liegen. Oder aber die Wähler gehen an die Urnen, um den Politikern in Westminster die rote Karte zu zeigen – in diesem Fall wäre zwar die Wahlbeteiligung höher, aber die Wahlentscheidung wäre eine national motivierte.
Aus britischer Perspektive bleibt die Europäische Union weiterhin ein Fremdkörper. Für das ehemalige Empire gibt es viele andere Referenzpunkte, die mehr zählen als Europa: Zunächst das eigene Land mit seiner großen Geschichte und seinen ungebrochenen Traditionslinien. Die USA, mit denen man eine ganz eigene Verbundenheit hat. Die Welt, mit der die Briten nicht nur durch eine koloniale Geschichte verbunden sind, sondern die sie auch durch ihre Sprache geprägt und sich für die Zukunft erschließbar gemacht haben. Und Europa, Europa ist, wenn überhaupt, nur ein Referenzpunkt von vielen. Als Kontinentaleuropäer reibt man sich nicht selten die Augen über die britische Sicht auf Europa. Ist erstaunt über mangelndes Wissen selbst unter den Eliten und schüttelt den Kopf über den „törichten“ Umgang der Briten mit der europäischen Idee. Vielleicht ist man als Deutscher oder Franzose aber auch nur ein wenig verärgert darüber, dass der für uns so wichtige Referenzpunkt „Europa“ auf der Insel so wenig zählt.“
***
UK membership in the European Union
Given the Euroskepticism of large parts of the population, the political elites and the media, as well as the lack of recognition for European parliamentary life, Möller finds it astonishing that there is no serious (European) debate on the membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union:
„Eines ist allerdings erstaunlich: Wenn so große Teile der Bevölkerung, der politischen Elite und der Medien europaskeptisch sind, wenn ein Land mit so großer parlamentarischer Tradition der Entwicklung des europäischen Parlamentarismus so wenig Beachtung schenkt – warum gibt es dann nicht längst eine ernsthafte Debatte über die Zukunft der Mitgliedschaft des Vereinigten Königreichs in der Europäischen Union?“
***
In a few days the UK Conservative Party will leave the European mainstream EPP-ED group in the European Parliament in order to sit with hard-line nationalists.
If we take into account the latest announcements of party leader David Cameron and look beyond the European Parliament elections to the next general election in Great Britain, Almut Möller’s question becomes even more pressing.
Why should the member states of the European Union accept continued membership for the United Kingdom if it acts according to Cameron’s hints to further diminish its attachment to the Council of Europe and the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, preliminary requirements for every EU member?
If the UK repudiates the basic tenets of the European Union, ever closer union and loyal cooperation, and the next government launches renegotiations to reverse its responsibilities, why should the other member states accept?
The European Union is difficult enough without Trojan horses.
Ralf Grahn
But Britain has been an awkward partner in Europe for three and a half decades, and the next general election seems destined to bring in a Conservative government with even less consideration for its European partners. The Tories have promised to put European integration in reverse, and they would most probably use the UK’s factual importance and veto powers to block EU progress for a long time.
***
CAP München
Ahead of the European Parliament elections the Centrum für angewandte Politikforschung (CAP; Center for Applied Policy Research) in Munich has published an impressive amount of analysis and comment on its web pages dedicated to the issues and campaigns (Themendossier zur Europawahl 2009).
***
Great Britain and Europe
Almut Möller: Europawahl 2009 in Großbritannien ─ Zwischen Desinteresse und Protest (European elections 2009 in Great Britain ─ Between lack of interest and protest; 18 May 2009; 4 pages) is a competent description of the British electoral scene and the intellectual climate with regard to Europe.
From a continental perspective, Möller describes a Britain where the European Parliament elections will make little European impact and where Europe is seen as unimportant. Even the elites show scant knowledge about Europe and the British way of handling the idea of Europe causes one to shake one’s head:
„Großbritannien und die EU: Man kennt sie nicht, man mag sie nicht – aber offenbar will man dabei sein
Die Europawahlen werden auch 2009 an Großbritannien vorbeiziehen, ohne „europäische“ Spuren zu hinterlassen. Die Briten werden entweder mit ähnlich geringem Interesse wählen wie in der Vergangenheit, und die Wahlbeteiligung wird erneut unter dem EU-weiten Durchschnitt liegen. Oder aber die Wähler gehen an die Urnen, um den Politikern in Westminster die rote Karte zu zeigen – in diesem Fall wäre zwar die Wahlbeteiligung höher, aber die Wahlentscheidung wäre eine national motivierte.
Aus britischer Perspektive bleibt die Europäische Union weiterhin ein Fremdkörper. Für das ehemalige Empire gibt es viele andere Referenzpunkte, die mehr zählen als Europa: Zunächst das eigene Land mit seiner großen Geschichte und seinen ungebrochenen Traditionslinien. Die USA, mit denen man eine ganz eigene Verbundenheit hat. Die Welt, mit der die Briten nicht nur durch eine koloniale Geschichte verbunden sind, sondern die sie auch durch ihre Sprache geprägt und sich für die Zukunft erschließbar gemacht haben. Und Europa, Europa ist, wenn überhaupt, nur ein Referenzpunkt von vielen. Als Kontinentaleuropäer reibt man sich nicht selten die Augen über die britische Sicht auf Europa. Ist erstaunt über mangelndes Wissen selbst unter den Eliten und schüttelt den Kopf über den „törichten“ Umgang der Briten mit der europäischen Idee. Vielleicht ist man als Deutscher oder Franzose aber auch nur ein wenig verärgert darüber, dass der für uns so wichtige Referenzpunkt „Europa“ auf der Insel so wenig zählt.“
***
UK membership in the European Union
Given the Euroskepticism of large parts of the population, the political elites and the media, as well as the lack of recognition for European parliamentary life, Möller finds it astonishing that there is no serious (European) debate on the membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union:
„Eines ist allerdings erstaunlich: Wenn so große Teile der Bevölkerung, der politischen Elite und der Medien europaskeptisch sind, wenn ein Land mit so großer parlamentarischer Tradition der Entwicklung des europäischen Parlamentarismus so wenig Beachtung schenkt – warum gibt es dann nicht längst eine ernsthafte Debatte über die Zukunft der Mitgliedschaft des Vereinigten Königreichs in der Europäischen Union?“
***
In a few days the UK Conservative Party will leave the European mainstream EPP-ED group in the European Parliament in order to sit with hard-line nationalists.
If we take into account the latest announcements of party leader David Cameron and look beyond the European Parliament elections to the next general election in Great Britain, Almut Möller’s question becomes even more pressing.
Why should the member states of the European Union accept continued membership for the United Kingdom if it acts according to Cameron’s hints to further diminish its attachment to the Council of Europe and the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, preliminary requirements for every EU member?
If the UK repudiates the basic tenets of the European Union, ever closer union and loyal cooperation, and the next government launches renegotiations to reverse its responsibilities, why should the other member states accept?
The European Union is difficult enough without Trojan horses.
Ralf Grahn
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