Eurobarometer: Separating the wheat from the chaff

Since the spring 2009 Eurobarometer, EU citizens see unemployment and the economic situation as the main worries facing their country. In May 2010 rising prices (inflation) are still the principal concern at a personal level (although with great differences between countries), followed by the economic situation and unemployment.

About four out of five respondents feel that the national, the EU and the world economy are in a bad shape, and more than a third experience the domestic employment situation as “very bad”.



It’s the economy, stupid


Now put yourself in the position of the European Commission, treaty bound to promote the general interest of the European Union.



Confronted with the First Results of the Spring 2010 Standard Eurobarometer 73, could you realistically contemplate ignoring or even downplaying the massive evidence of public opinion, what Europeans are worried about?

Writing your press release, could you disregard that these citizens expect more from the European Union than from their national governments or international financial institutions? (We are going to return to the expectations in a future blog post.)



It’s the economy, stupid, said a curious Yankee in Europe’s court: US and EU citizens share common priorities about economic woes.

Could you refuse to take notice, in good faith?

Hardly.



Back to square one

Discussion can improve our understanding, if we are willing to look at the evidence and test various claims in order to arrive at reasonable interpretations and conclusions.

Big ifs, it seems.

The hyperactive Swedish libertarian blogger Henrik Alexandersson works for the Pirate Party (Green Group) MEP Christian Engström in the European Parliament, and he produces a mass of blog entries on important issues, such as data retention, privacy, netizens’ rights and intellectual property rights.



To keep his libertarian juices flowing, he regularly takes swipes at the European Union. In a blog post yesterday he accused the Commission of cheating in a press release: EU fifflar med opinionen.

Henriksson does not mention the Eurobarometer poll. He does not even specify the ‘dishonest’press release or link to it.



He disregards the whole Eurobarometer controversy and the later discussion, uncritically using Open Europe’s blog post as his only source and link.

No hearing the other side - Audiatur et altera pars - for Henriksson.



Almost a week from the EU Commission’s press release (26 August 2010, IP/10/1071; available in 22 languages) and Open Europe’s vehement attack, Henriksson brings the discussion back to square one, having learnt nothing in the meantime.

Henriksson may have indulged his readers by feeding their prejudices, but he did nothing to make the discussion move forward.



The attitude of the French blog La lettre volée is as cavalier, dismissing the Commission’s interpretation as Orwellian, without caring to look at the facts and arguments.

Pretty useless, in fact.



Commission press release



I already opined that it would have been unbelievable if the European Commission had disregarded the massive worries of Europeans - economic ones - and ignored citizens’ expectations concerning EU level action, but the press release did actually mention sinking support for EU membership, even if discreetly and in context:

When asked about the benefits of EU membership, 49% of Europeans said in May that EU membership of their country was a “good thing” (-4 compared to autumn 2009). Public support for EU membership was still higher than in 2001, when following the downturn after the burst of the "Internet bubble", public support for EU membership stood at 48%.

The survey also found that in May 2010 trust in the EU institutions remained higher compared to national governments or national parliaments (42% vs. 29% and 31%, respectively), even though confidence in the EU fell at the height of the crisis (to 42% from 48% in autumn 2009). Trust was most pronounced in Estonia (68%), Slovakia (65%), Bulgaria and Denmark (61%), whilst it was lowest in the United Kingdom (20%).

In addition, confidence in the EU and national governments/parliaments from spring 2001 to spring 2010 was depicted in one of the few selected charts in the press release, which also contained a link to the first full results and country factsheets.




Having sorted out the chaff, let us move on to the wheat.




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.

Eurobarometer: Europeans worried about unemployment and economy

The media roundup of the EU-wide opinion poll, Eurobarometer, revealed four strands of news reporting and commentary: Stress on economic challenges, or plunging support for EU membership, scepticism towards public opinion polls like Eurobarometer, and available in ten languages on Presseurop Marco Zatterin’s possible synthesis of citizens’ expectations and lack of delivery by EU institutions.



You can follow Marco Zatterin’s Italian blog Straneuropa on La Stampa.



What can we learn from the questions and answers in the Spring 2010 Standard Eurobarometer 73 (First Results), if we take a closer look?

[A technical note, in case others experience the same problems: Every time I have used the Google Chrome browser to access the Eurobarometer poll I have failed to open the pdf document. If I use Internet Explorer, the Eurobarometer document opens easily.]



Eurobarometer background



The field work was carried out by the TNS Opinion & Social network in May 2010, when the financial, economic and eurozone crises were acutely felt, but the counter-measures by the European Union were mainly political declarations, preparatory work or promised proposals.



During the interview period, prime ministers and finance ministers were busy with the eurozone rescue of Greece, the European financial stabilisation mechanism (EFSM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The intergovernmental, euro area and EU-wide measures announced were more chaotic and hard to understand than transparent or reassuring.

There was also resentment in the air. In a number of member states, such as the so called PIIGs, the “prodigal son” linked hardship with EU rules on reducing public deficits and debt, while the “older son” grumbled why he should pay for the good-for-nothings.



Main concerns

I do not find it surprising that about four out of five respondents felt that the national, the EU and the world economy were in a bad shape. The domestic employment situation was seen as very bad by 34 per cent (page 7). If anything, the small shifts were towards pessimism.

Although the citizens were a bit more optimistic about their own financial and job situation, they experienced no real turn for the better (page 8).

I would not read too much into small percentage shifts when people were asked to name the two most important issues facing their country.

Two faces of the same coin continue to dominate people’s worries since the spring 2009 Eurobarometer: unemployment and the economic situation. Regarding their own country, respondent were less concerned about rising prices (inflation), crime and healthcare, among the fourteen alternatives offered.

However, rising prices (inflation) remained the major anxiety at a personal level, especially in troubled new member states.

Costs of living affect everyone directly, whereas the general economic situation is somewhat more abstract and unemployment hits only a part of the population (page 10).



The mood among EU citizens almost four months ago was sombre, but sentiments may have improved somewhat since then (AFP). There are signs of recovery and rising confidence, but the signals are uneven, and many member states are still in deep trouble.



The wide discrepancies between euro area countries have not laid speculation about the future of the common currency to rest, as experienced on the shop floor by Wolfgang Münchau in the Financial Times.

We have to evaluate the levels of trust and the actions meriting confidence against this background.



Kupchan and Matizandrea



In The Washington Post, Charles Kupchan took a broad and pessimistic or realistic view of the state of the EU: As nationalism rises, will the European Union fail?



I first noticed Kupchan’s thought-provoking article through Daniel Mason of The Endless Track blog.



I also found a comment (in Italian) about the Eurobarometer poll on Matizandrea’s Blog: Quarantadue percento (Forty two per cent).




Ralf Grahn



P.S. Comments relevant to the topic discussed in each Grahnlaw blog post are most welcome. However, the number of spam comments has skyrocketed. This is the sad reason for comment moderation, so it may take a while before your valued comment appears.

It is easier to understand a language than to use it correctly. As Eurobloggers we could and should promote interaction among Europeans across borders and between linguistic communities. Grahnlaw has adopted a multilingual comment policy:

I do my best to read comments in Danish, Dutch, English, Finnish, French, German, Italian, Norwegian, Portuguese, Spanish or Swedish, even if the Grahnlaw blog and my possible replies are in English.



Antonia on the Euonym blog (Talking about the EU) tells us that the European Commission in the UK arranges a Day of Multilingual Blogging on 26 September 2010, and the UK Representation has been joined by the multilingual aggregator Bloggingportal.eu and individual Eurobloggers. Join the event page on Facebook, spread the word through social media and personal contacts, begin preparing your blog posts and start learning a new language.

Europe 2020 flagship initiative Youth on the move (EU Commission Work Programme 2010)

Can anything be done to reduce idleness and frustration, improve the functioning of jobs markets, and to give young people better skills to start an independent life and a productive career?



According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, in May 2010, the youth unemployment rate (under-25s) was 19.9% in the euro area and 20.5% in the EU27. The lowest rate was observed in the Netherlands (8.1%), and the highest rates in Spain (40.5%), Estonia (39.8% in the first quarter of 2010) and Latvia (39.7% in the first quarter of 2010).

The youth unemployment rates are roughly twice as high as for the population as a whole, both in the European Union and in the individual countries.

Obviously, the financial and economic crises have taken their toll by barring recruitment, but in a Europe already facing the demographic challenges of an ageing population, something is seriously wrong with the markets for labour market entrants.



Europe 2020 strategy




The blog post Europe 2020 strategy: Flagship initiative Youth on the move looked at how the European Commission outlined its flagship initiative to improve employability and employment for young EU citizens through education and training, in the communication:



Europe 2020 - A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth; Brussels, 3.3.2010 COM(2010) 2020 final



Commission Work Programme



In section 2 of the Commission’s Work Programme (CWP) for 2010, Tackling the crisis and sustaining Europe’s social market economy, the flagship initiative is briefly outlined (page 5):

“Youth on the move” (strategic initiative 12): This initiative will set out priorities to enhance the performance of education systems, to reinforce the attractiveness of Europe's higher education system and to open more mobility programmes to young people. The younger generation has been particularly hit by the crisis. A communication on “youth employment” (strategic initiative 13) will be a policy response to increase job opportunities for young people, promote apprenticeships and training, and improve transition from education into work.

Source:



Commission Work Programme 2010 - Time to act, Volume I; Brussels, 31.3.2010 COM(2010) 135 final



CWP Annexes

In the CWP Annexes strategic initiative 12, the flagship initiative Youth on the move, is promised in the third quarter of 2010. The main components of this non-legislative initiative are sketched in the following manner in Annex I (page 3):

The Communication will set out a strategy to integrate EU and national mobility, university and researchers programmes, to modernise higher education, to promote entrepreneurship through mobility of young professionals, and to promote the recognition of informal learning. It will announce further initiatives, covering both policy and programme related elements, which will be brought forward in coming years. This framework will include a European entrepreneur exchange programme - "ERASMUS for young entrepreneurs".

With regard to strategic initiative 13, the non-legislative communication on Youth and Employment is promised in the fourth quarter of 2010 (page 3):

The Communication will look at ways of strengthening policy to overcome the impact of the crisis on young people. It will explore how to ease transitions from education and training work. The document will also address how to ensure a better link between policy priorities and EU funds, especially the European Social Fund. The Communication will announce a set of new initiatives including the promotion of youth geographical mobility (EURES), a mobilisation of the business sector to recruit youth, and announce increased direct support to innovative projects through PROGRESS, the Lifelong Learning and Youth in Action Programmes.

Source:



Commission Work Programme 2010 - Time to act, Volume II Annexes; Brussels, 31.3.2010 COM(2010) 135 final


In this series of blog entries we will continue to look at how Europe is going to respond to the challenge of its dysfunctional jobs markets, especially with regard to young people, in the context of the Europe 2020 flagship initiative Youth on the move.




Ralf Grahn

European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) revision

In Revision of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) (6 May 2009; MEMO/09/221) the Commission has published an overview of the provisions of the EGF’s Founding Regulation 1927/2006 to be amended.



In short, the rules of the EGF have are being adapted to take account of the financial and economic crisis, besides its original aim to aid measures against redundancies caused by structural change.

More information is available on the EGF web pages of the Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities.



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European Parliament vote

The reason to publish the Memo seems to have been the approval by the European Parliament 6 May 2009 of the Commission’s proposal, the near unanimous vote being 538 for, 35 against and 37 abstentions.


At this stage the provisional EP resolution can be found among the adopted texts of 6May 2009 (Part 2; page 19).



Here are the exact references to the adopted text:


P6_TA-PROV(2009)0365
European Globalisation Adjustment Fund ***I
European Parliament legislative resolution of 6 May 2009 on the proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Regulation (EC) No 1927/2006 on establishing the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (COM(2008)0867 – C6-0518/2008 – 2008/0267(COD))

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It is natural that with growing unemployment and the European elections looming, the institutions of the European Union wish to be seen as doing something to counter the ill effects of the financial and economic crisis.


Ralf Grahn